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More Montreal Listings, Steady Prices: Why This Isn't a Buyer's Market Yet
Montreal buyers closed 12% fewer residential sales in September 2026 than a year earlier, according to the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB). Over the same stretch, active listings rose 20%, and inventory now sits roughly 5% above its 10-year average for the first time in several years. The median price of a single-family home barely moved, shifting by less than 1% from the year before.
Those three numbers look like they should not belong together. When buyers step back and supply piles up, prices are supposed to give way. They haven't, and the reason says a lot about where the market actually stands.
What the listing count is measuring
A 20% jump in active listings sounds like a wave of new sellers. Part of it is. The count also includes older listings that are taking longer to sell. A home that sits unsold for three months shows up in three monthly counts, while one that sells in a week may appear in only one. Average days on market in Montreal have started to trend upward, so the inventory figure reflects both new supply and slower turnover.
Neither of those forces a seller to cut. A homeowner who listed in the spring, with no bridge loan and no firm purchase lined up, can leave the sign on the lawn into the new year. That is what price stickiness looks like in practice: sellers who are not under pressure choose to wait rather than accept less. Fewer transactions at the same prices means volume has slowed while value has held.
QPAREB describes the shift as a move from a seller's market toward a balanced one. Nationally, CREA reported 4.8 months of inventory in August 2026, with the average price of $668,219 up 0.6% year over year. Montreal is drifting toward that same middle ground. A buyer's market requires sellers who need to sell.
That hasn't arrived.
Where the slowdown is sharpest
The broad numbers hide uneven pockets. The Island of Montreal has cooled more than the North and South Shores, where homes are somewhat more affordable. In Westmount and Outremont, prestige inventory is so thin that a good property can still draw competing offers, whatever the regional listing count says.
The plex segment, buildings with two to five units, slowed the most. Investors price these on the cap rate, which is the yearly rental income after expenses divided by the purchase price. When financing costs stay above what investors grew used to over the previous decade, the same rent supports a lower price, and buyers hold off until sellers agree. Owner-occupiers buying a single-family house care more about the monthly payment and how the home fits their lives, so they keep transacting.
What changes for buyers with equity
Bidding wars and unconditional offers are fading. With inventory above its long-run average, buyers are getting time back: time for an inspection, time for financing to clear, time to compare two or three homes before committing. For an upgrader with substantial equity in their current home, that breathing room is the real advantage of this market.
Qualifying still bites. Under OSFI's stress test, a borrower must qualify at the contract rate plus 200 basis points, or 5.25%, whichever is higher. A buyer offered a hypothetical 4.5% on a five-year fixed mortgage would be tested at 6.5%, which caps the loan size no matter how many homes are for sale. Many higher-income households are also choosing to keep cash available until they see clearer signs that prices or rates have settled.
Why the extra supply may not last
Montreal has been building fewer homes than its population growth calls for over the long term. A listing surplus during a cyclical lull does not close that gap. If rates ease or consumer confidence recovers from the strain of higher living costs, the current inventory could be absorbed faster than the 20% headline suggests, and the sellers who waited would end up with the prices they held out for.
Which is why the steady median carries the most weight of the three numbers. For now, the people deciding whether Montreal becomes a buyer's market are the sellers, and most of them have not decided yet.
Montreal buyers closed 12% fewer residential sales in September 2026 than a year earlier, according to the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB). Over the same stretch, active listings rose 20%, and inventory now sits roughly 5% above its 10-year average for the first time in several years. The median price of a single-family home barely moved, shifting by less than 1% from the year before.
Those three numbers look like they should not belong together. When buyers step back and supply piles up, prices are supposed to give way. They haven't, and the reason says a lot about where the market actually stands.
What the listing count is measuring
A 20% jump in active listings sounds like a wave of new sellers. Part of it is. The count also includes older listings that are taking longer to sell. A home that sits unsold for three months shows up in three monthly counts, while one that sells in a week may appear in only one. Average days on market in Montreal have started to trend upward, so the inventory figure reflects both new supply and slower turnover.
Neither of those forces a seller to cut. A homeowner who listed in the spring, with no bridge loan and no firm purchase lined up, can leave the sign on the lawn into the new year. That is what price stickiness looks like in practice: sellers who are not under pressure choose to wait rather than accept less. Fewer transactions at the same prices means volume has slowed while value has held.
QPAREB describes the shift as a move from a seller's market toward a balanced one. Nationally, CREA reported 4.8 months of inventory in August 2026, with the average price of $668,219 up 0.6% year over year. Montreal is drifting toward that same middle ground. A buyer's market requires sellers who need to sell.
That hasn't arrived.
Where the slowdown is sharpest
The broad numbers hide uneven pockets. The Island of Montreal has cooled more than the North and South Shores, where homes are somewhat more affordable. In Westmount and Outremont, prestige inventory is so thin that a good property can still draw competing offers, whatever the regional listing count says.
The plex segment, buildings with two to five units, slowed the most. Investors price these on the cap rate, which is the yearly rental income after expenses divided by the purchase price. When financing costs stay above what investors grew used to over the previous decade, the same rent supports a lower price, and buyers hold off until sellers agree. Owner-occupiers buying a single-family house care more about the monthly payment and how the home fits their lives, so they keep transacting.
What changes for buyers with equity
Bidding wars and unconditional offers are fading. With inventory above its long-run average, buyers are getting time back: time for an inspection, time for financing to clear, time to compare two or three homes before committing. For an upgrader with substantial equity in their current home, that breathing room is the real advantage of this market.
Qualifying still bites. Under OSFI's stress test, a borrower must qualify at the contract rate plus 200 basis points, or 5.25%, whichever is higher. A buyer offered a hypothetical 4.5% on a five-year fixed mortgage would be tested at 6.5%, which caps the loan size no matter how many homes are for sale. Many higher-income households are also choosing to keep cash available until they see clearer signs that prices or rates have settled.
Why the extra supply may not last
Montreal has been building fewer homes than its population growth calls for over the long term. A listing surplus during a cyclical lull does not close that gap. If rates ease or consumer confidence recovers from the strain of higher living costs, the current inventory could be absorbed faster than the 20% headline suggests, and the sellers who waited would end up with the prices they held out for.
Which is why the steady median carries the most weight of the three numbers. For now, the people deciding whether Montreal becomes a buyer's market are the sellers, and most of them have not decided yet.
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